The Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has embarked on an ambitious strategy to strengthen its security position in the face of growing regional tensions. Most recently, the country signed a landmark defense pact with New Zealand, marking another significant step in what analysts are calling a comprehensive “China-proofing” strategy. This diplomatic and defense initiative represents a fundamental shift in Philippine foreign policy that has far-reaching implications for regional security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific.
The Strategic Pivot Under Marcos Jr.
President Marcos Jr. has dramatically altered the Philippines’ approach to foreign relations compared to his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. While Duterte pursued a policy of engagement with China while maintaining U.S. security ties, Marcos Jr. has explicitly aligned Manila with Washington and adopted a more confrontational stance toward Beijing2. This represents perhaps the most significant foreign policy shift among Southeast Asian nations, with the Philippines becoming the first to seemingly “choose sides” in the intensifying U.S.-China competition.
The catalyst for this strategic realignment appears to be increasing Chinese assertiveness in the contested waters of the South China Sea. Marcos Jr. has expressed particular frustration over rising Chinese harassment of Philippine vessels and marines stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal, where incidents have spiked dramatically in the past nine months2. China’s unwillingness to engage in serious dialogue about these confrontations seems to have solidified Marcos Jr.’s determination to secure stronger international support.
A Decisive Break from Duterte’s Hedging Strategy
During the Duterte administration, the Philippines maintained what scholars identify as a hedging strategy characterized by “military proximity to the United States and economic contact with China”3. This balanced approach allowed the Philippines to benefit from Chinese economic engagement while maintaining security guarantees from Washington. However, the Marcos Jr. administration has shifted toward a more decisive alignment with traditional allies and partners concerned about China’s regional ambitions3.
The New Zealand Defense Pact: Expanding the Security Network
On April 30, 2025, the Philippines and New Zealand formalized a groundbreaking defense agreement allowing troop deployments on each other’s soil4. This Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) represents a significant deepening of strategic ties between the two nations as they confront shared concerns over China’s rising aggressiveness in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the contested South China Sea4.
The agreement goes beyond simple military cooperation. Alongside the defense pact, the Philippines and New Zealand will elevate their diplomatic relationship to a “Comprehensive Partnership” in 2025, with a specific focus on maritime security and disaster response capabilities4. This multifaceted approach demonstrates Manila’s commitment to building not just military ties but comprehensive strategic relationships with like-minded nations.
A Growing Web of Defense Alliances
The Philippines-New Zealand pact is just the latest in a series of similar agreements Manila has secured or is pursuing. With this addition, the Philippines now holds Visiting Forces Agreements with four key Indo-Pacific partners:
- The United States (longstanding alliance)
- Australia (established agreement)
- Japan (recently negotiated)
- New Zealand (newly signed)47
These agreements create the legal framework necessary for countries to deploy defense personnel to each other’s territories for training exercises and other operations7. Such arrangements significantly enhance interoperability between allied forces and strengthen the Philippines’ position in any potential regional conflict.
Expanding the Alliance Network: Canada and France
The Marcos administration is not stopping with these four partnerships. According to Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Canada and the Philippines have already concluded talks for a similar visiting forces agreement, which is expected to be signed “very soon”6. This would bring a North American partner with significant Pacific interests into Manila’s security architecture.
Additionally, in December 2023, the Philippines and France announced their intention to pursue a defense pact that would allow for reciprocal troop deployments7. During a historic meeting in Manila between Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and his French counterpart Sebastien Lecornu, both officials emphasized their shared values and common interest in cooperation beyond just the South China Sea to include the greater Pacific area7.
Lecornu, the first French defense minister to make an official visit to the Philippines, noted that the French navy already conducts numerous operations and training exercises in the region. “We are working on an agenda of strengthening our presence in the Indo Pacific,” he stated, using terminology preferred by the United States and its allies for the Asia-Pacific region7.
The China Factor: Territorial Disputes and Maritime Tension
The acceleration of the Philippines’ alliance-building efforts comes against the backdrop of longstanding territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China’s claims of sovereignty over the Nine-Dash line area directly conflict with the sovereignty claims of multiple Southeast Asian nations, including Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines1.
Under Marcos Jr., Manila has taken a more assertive approach to defending its maritime claims. This includes reinforcing its presence at the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded vessel that serves as a small military outpost in contested waters. China has repeatedly warned Marcos Jr. against turning this position into a significant Philippine military outpost, even as Beijing continues to build military installations across the disputed waters2.
The Philippine president appears particularly angered by China’s unwillingness to back down or engage in serious dialogue regarding the rising number of incidents at sea. These confrontations have included blockades of Philippine supply ships attempting to reach marines stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal, forcing the Philippines to resort to airdrops for resupply missions2.
Legal Context and International Law
It’s worth noting that the Philippines previously won a landmark case against China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague during the administration of President Benigno Aquino III. Despite this legal victory, Beijing has consistently ignored the ruling2, forcing Manila to seek additional measures to strengthen its position.
Economic Considerations in the Strategic Shift
While security concerns appear to be driving the Philippines’ diplomatic realignment, economic factors also play a crucial role in the country’s strategic calculations. The pursuit of economic development remains a priority for the Philippines, which continues to grapple with poverty and economic inequality3.
During the Duterte administration, the Philippines temporarily shelved territorial disputes to enhance economic and trade cooperation with China. These economic ties achieved certain positive results and played a role in easing Sino-Philippine tensions3. However, under Marcos Jr., there has been a concerted effort to diversify economic partnerships, with particular attention to wooing investors from the United States, Japan, and other non-Chinese sources2.
This economic reorientation reflects a broader recognition that long-term development goals may be better served through diversified partnerships rather than dependence on Chinese investment and trade. It also acknowledges the increasing difficulty of separating economic and security considerations in the current geopolitical environment.
Balancing Regional Dynamics: The Unique Philippine Position
The Philippines occupies a uniquely precarious position in Southeast Asia’s complex geopolitical landscape. Unlike other regional powers such as Vietnam and Singapore, which have maintained careful balancing acts despite their own concerns about China’s regional security approach, the Philippines under Marcos Jr. has moved decisively toward explicit alignment with the United States and its allies2.
This exceptional position reflects several factors specific to the Philippine situation:
- Geographic vulnerability due to its position in the South China Sea
- Historical security ties with the United States
- Escalating direct confrontations with Chinese vessels and personnel
- Marcos Jr.’s personal conviction that maintaining a delicate balance is no longer feasible given China’s increasing regional dominance2
Domestic Political Considerations
The shift in foreign policy also reflects domestic political dynamics within the Philippines. The Marcos administration appears to be distancing itself from former President Duterte, whose pro-China stance has become increasingly controversial. This domestic political differentiation was highlighted in December 2023 when Philippine television regulators suspended a TV program featuring Duterte after he made threatening comments toward a member of the Philippine House of Representatives5.
The Future of Philippines’ Defense Posture
As the Philippines continues to strengthen its network of defense alliances, several key developments bear watching:
- The implementation timeline for the newly signed agreements, particularly the practical aspects of troop deployments and joint exercises
- The completion of pending agreements with Canada and France
- China’s response to the Philippines’ alliance-building strategy
- The evolution of economic relationships as security ties shift
- The potential for escalation in the South China Sea as positions harden
The Marcos administration’s approach represents a dramatic departure from the careful hedging strategies traditionally employed by Southeast Asian nations caught between competing great powers. Whether this more decisive alignment will enhance Philippine security or increase regional tensions remains to be seen, but it undoubtedly marks a significant shift in the Indo-Pacific’s strategic landscape.
Conclusion: Implications for Regional Security Architecture
The Philippines’ aggressive pursuit of defense agreements under Marcos Jr. signals a profound transformation in regional security dynamics. By building a comprehensive network of alliances with like-minded democracies, Manila is creating a more robust security architecture designed to counterbalance China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.
This “China-proofing” strategy represents both an opportunity and a challenge for regional stability. While strengthened alliances may deter aggressive actions in disputed waters, they could also accelerate the trend toward bloc formation in the Indo-Pacific, making diplomatic solutions to territorial disputes more difficult to achieve.
What remains clear is that under President Marcos Jr., the Philippines has abandoned the ambiguous positioning of previous administrations in favor of a more explicit alignment with the United States and its partners. This decisive shift may well prove to be one of the most consequential developments in Southeast Asian geopolitics in recent years, with implications that will reverberate throughout the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
